In keeping with a monetary presentation by Nidec, a Japanese producer of motors chargeable for round 85% of all HDD spindle motors, the corporate expects exhausting drive gross sales for PCs to drop considerably this yr. The engine producer is making ready for quite a few ongoing developments and expects that gross sales of HDD engines for 2019 will decline by round 50% year-on-year. In the meantime, the corporate additionally expects a decline in gross sales of different HDD sorts, however not so drastically. In actual fact, information middle disk drive deliveries are anticipated to extend considerably.
In keeping with Nidec, from 2010 to 2018, HDD volumes fell by round 43% from round 650 million models in 2010 to 375 million models in 2018. And it seems to be like gross sales will proceed to say no within the close to future years. Not too long ago, Nidec downgraded its forecast for HDD supply from 356 million drives to 309 million drives in 2019, which is able to additional decline to 290 million models in 2020. The latest decline in HDD shipments has already pressured Nidec to optimize manufacturing capability for HDD engines and to reuse a few of its capability for different forms of merchandise.
Shipments of PC HDDs have been hit hardest by all HDD sorts on account of a mix of common market weaknesses and the transition from pocket book to SSDs. In keeping with Nidec, deliveries of PC exhausting drives will regularly decline from 289 million drives in 2013 to 124 million units in 2018. Nevertheless, gross sales of exhausting drives for PCs this yr will rise sharply from 124 million units in 2018 to 65 million models per yr Fall in 2019 or by about 48%.
In the meantime, HDD shipments for broader client electronics are anticipated to say no from 77 million HDDs in 2018 to 70 million in 2019. That is probably pushed by decrease gross sales of present technology consoles, surveillance techniques and different units.
Nevertheless, there’s a ray of hope within the HDD market: each exterior exhausting disks and nearline exhausting disks for information facilities each look very robust. Deliveries of the primary will stay unchanged at round 100 million models, whereas information middle drive gross sales are anticipated to develop to 54 million models, in keeping with Nidec. Conversely, enterprise-class drive sales-which Nidec owns individually from information middle drives-are anticipated to shrink considerably as mission-critical functions migrate to SSDs.
With all these shifts in HDD gross sales, it’s noteworthy that the main exhausting disk producers have identified that whereas nearline and surveillance HDD gross sales can (or could even be) roughly flat, their capacities and efficiency will be decreased ASPs, nevertheless, are at all times larger.
Nidec controls the lion's share of the marketplace for HDD spindle motors, so its projections are fairly worthwhile and undoubtedly price a glance. Particularly because the firm needs to maintain its excessive market share on this calendar yr.